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09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- After mother nature delayed the opening of this important weekend set, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox will renew acquaintances with a day-night doubleheader that begins this afternoon from Fenway Park.
The arrival of Hurricane Earl to the New England region forced the postponement of last night's scheduled opener of this three-game series, which in turn pushed back the anticipated return of former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez to Fenway Park in a Chicago uniform.
Ramirez, who spent eight memorable seasons with the Red Sox and played a big part in the franchise's World Series title-runs in both 2004 and 2007, was claimed off waivers by Chicago from the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday and made his White Sox debut in the club's 6-4 victory over Cleveland on Wednesday. The 12-time All-Star was traded to Boston to the Dodgers midway through the 2008 campaign following a sequence of conflicts with the Red Sox organization over various matters.
The 38-year-old slugger went 1-for-3 with a strikeout in his first game with the White Sox and is batting .312 with eight homers and 40 RBI during an injury-plagued season. Ramirez will be playing in Fenway for the second time with the opposing team since his acrimonious departure two years ago, having done so with the Dodgers between June 18-20. He went 5-for-12 with a home run over the course of that three-game set.
Chicago trailed 4-1 after seven innings in Wednesday's contest before scoring four times in the eighth to forge ahead, with Paul Konerko's three-run homer off Justin Germano giving the White Sox a 5-4 advantage. Alexei Ramirez hit a solo homer earlier in the frame to begin the comeback.
Tony Pena (4-2) was credited with the win after throwing three innings in relief of starter Freddy Garcia, who was removed after the bottom of the fourth due to back spasms. Rookie Chris Sale picked up his first career save with a scoreless ninth.
Alexei Ramirez knocked in two runs on the day and Alex Rios also homered for Chicago, which swept the three-game set with the Indians and stands four games back of Minnesota for first place in the American League Central.
"It's nice, it's needed," Konerko said of the sweep. "Minnesota you always have to assume is going to win their games. The only time we can control what they're going to do is when we play them. We just have to assume they're going to win."
The White Sox will face a tough test in the opener, with Boston sending Cy Young Award candidate Clay Buchholz to the hill today. The All-Star hurler sports a 15-5 record along with a stellar 2.21 earned run average -- tops in the majors at the moment -- and enters this outing carrying a seven-start unbeaten streak.
Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.07 ERA during that undefeated stretch and has permitted one run or less in all but one of those appearances. The right- hander was stuck with a no-decision in Boston's 3-2 loss at Tampa Bay last Saturday, but still held the Rays to two runs -- one earned -- and just four hits over 7 1/3 effective innings.
The 26-year-old, who hasn't taken a loss since July 21 at Oakland, has not fared well in previous matchups with the White Sox, however. Buchholz was pounded for seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings by Chicago last season at Fenway Park, and surrendered five runs and seven hits over three frames in a setback at U.S. Cellular Field back in 2008.
Boston returns home after going 3-3 on a six-game road trip through Tampa Bay and Baltimore, closing out the swing with a pair of victories over the lowly Orioles. The Red Sox scored five second-inning runs en route to a 6-4 triumph in last night's finale, with David Ortiz's two-RBI single highlighting the uprising.
"We got after them early," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "David's two- out hit was huge."
Adrian Beltre had a solo homer and Ryan Kalish added an RBI double during the big second inning, while Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-4) pitched into the bottom of the sixth to notch his ninth win of the season. The Japanese star was touched for four runs over 5 2/3 frames, but struck out six while walking just one batter.
Jonathan Papelbon ran into some trouble in the ninth, allowing two Baltimore runners to reach base with one out, but the Boston closer settled down to strike out the game's final two hitters and record his 35th save.
The Red Sox enter today's play seven games behind Tampa Bay for the lead in the AL Wild Card standings and will take their swings in game one off John Danks. The Chicago lefty will be seeking to rebound from a poor performance against the New York Yankees in his most recent start, when he was battered for eight runs and served up three homers in just 4 1/3 innings versus the Bronx Bombers on August 28.
Danks also hasn't had much luck when taking on the Red Sox in the past, having compiled a 1-4 record and a 5.08 ERA over five lifetime starts in this series. He did best the Red Sox at Fenway Park last season, however, after allowing just two runs and fanning six over six innings.
He'll be followed by Gavin Floyd in the nightcap, with the talented righty aiming to continue his prior success against Boston. The former first-round draft choice owns a 3-0 record with a 3.94 ERA over five career encounters (four starts) with the Red Sox and is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in two previous trips to the Fenway Park mound.
Floyd is just 9-11 for the season, but has pitched well in each of his past two assignments. After delivering seven innings of two-run ball to beat Baltimore on August 24, the 27-year-old held the Yankees to two runs over 6 2/3 frames in a tough 2-1 defeat last Sunday.
John Lackey gets the call for Boston in tonight's second tilt and will likely be awaiting this homestand to get underway. Nine of the free-agent addition's 12 wins in 2010 have come at Fenway Park, and he's emerged victorious in each of his last two starts at the historic venue.
In his most recent home appearance, Lackey struck out a season-best 10 batters and allowed three runs (two earned) and just six hits over eight strong innings in an August 23 win over Seattle. The veteran righty wasn't nearly as sharp this past Sunday in St. Petersburg, where he was reached for five runs and nine hits in 6 1/3 frames to take a costly loss against Tampa Bay.
Lackey, who's 9-3 with a 4.60 ERA in 14 Fenway starts this year, has a 3-5 record with a 4.06 ERA in 13 lifetime games against the White Sox.
Today's doubleheader marks the first meetings between these teams this season. The Red Sox and White Sox split eight contests in 2009, with Boston taking three of the four held at Fenway Park.
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It's less than a month until the NHL hockey betting season opens at MySportsbook.com and preparations are underway for another battle in the race to hoist Lord Stanley's mug in 2007.
As cup crazy fans prepare to place their bets, one online sportsbook ,MySportsbook.com, is offering hockey betting lines on the 2007/2007 Stanley Cup , who will bring it home this upcoming season.
Despite a poor showing in last season's playoffs and the loss of Steve Yzerman to retirement, the Detroit Red Wings are early favourites at this online sportsbook with wagering odds of 6-1. The Wings will look to offensive powerhouse Pavel Datsyuk and newly appointed captain Nicklas Lidstrom to lead one of the league's most prominent franchises.
Always a threat are the Ottawa Senators, with newly acquired goaltender Martin Gerber from the Stanley Cup champion ,Carolina Hurricanes. The Sens are second best in the rankings at a 7-1 bet, and odds makers at this sportsbook are optimistic that the Ottawa squad will fare better than last season's Eastern Conference semi-final upset to the Buffalo Sabres.
Also worth noting are the defending Stanley Cup champs Carolina Hurricanes, a 10-1 bet to repeat. Behind the Canes are the New Jersey Devils, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Anaheim Mighty Ducks all sit at 12-1. In the basement are the Washington Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks, and St. Louis Blues who all have 100-1 odds to win.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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