Rousing Sermon Alpha Host Salvage Against Hollendorfer

Horseracing Betting Lines

Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Todd Pletcher has been dominating the Sam F. Davis Stakes in recent years and has another opportunity to win the event with its 32nd renewal on Saturday. The $250,000 stakes, with a field of 11 three-year-olds, will be conducted over a distance of 1 1/16-miles. Pletcher, who has won the last two and four of the last six editions, has entered Ecabroni for St. George Stable. The gray colt has drawn post four with Javier Castellano riding. Castellano won last week's Holy Bull Stakes for Pletcher aboard Algorithms at Gulfstream Park.

 

Also coming in from Gulfstream is Reveron, winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day. Owned by Stipa Racing Stable, Reveron will be ridden by Fernando Jara from post 10.

 

Local winner Prospective has drawn the far outside post with Luis Contreras keeping the mount. Trained by Mark Casse, the colt won Tampa's Pasco Stakes last month at odds of 5-2.

 

The Sam F. Davis Stakes is scheduled for 5:10 p.m. (et) and is the final local prep for next month's Tampa Bay Derby.

 

Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three of the eight three-year-olds entered in Saturday's $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park are trained by a pair of Hall of Fame conditioners with Kentucky Derby aspirations. The 1 1/16-mile stakes is a stepping stone to the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Bob Baffert has entered a pair of colts with stakes winning Liaison slated as the 9-5 morning-line favorite. Owned by Arnold Zetcher, the three-year-old will start from post two with Rafael Bejarano returning to ride.

 

Liaison has won three of four starts, all last year, with wins in the Real Quiet Stakes and CashCall Futurity. He comes into his 2012 debut with earnings of $469,560, easily the most of the entrants.

 

"They're doing well and we want to win the race," Baffert said. "They're going into the race very well-prepared so we expect them to run pretty well. I just want them to have a good race. They've had a few starts now where they've got enough foundation and they've done well. You just want them to stay healthy."

 

Rousing Sermon will be taking on Liaison for a third straight time. The veteran of six starts was second to the Baffert horse in both the Real Quiet and CashCall Futurity. Hollendorfer's horse won the California Cup Juvenile last October and has banked $274,000.

 

The Robert B.Lewis Stakes has a scheduled post-time of 6:05 p.m. (et).

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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